ЦБ повысил ключевую ставку до 18%

Совет директоров Банка России решил повысить ключевую ставку сразу на 200 базисных пунктов. Теперь она составит 18%. При этом ЦБ предупредил, что будет оценивать целесообразность дальнейшего повышения ставки на ближайшем заседании 13 сентября. До этого повышения регулятор четыре раза сохранял ставку на уровне 16%.

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Источник: ЦБ РФ

«Для того чтобы инфляция вновь начала снижаться, требуется дополнительное ужесточение денежно-кредитной политики, а для возвращения инфляции к цели — существенно более жесткие денежно-кредитные условия, чем предполагалось ранее»,— говорится в пресс-релизе ЦБ.

Как отмечет регулятор, показатель базовой инфляции вырос во II квартале в среднем до 9,2% в пересчете на год. Годовая инфляция увеличилась с 8,6% в июне до 9,0%, по оценке на 22 июля. На этом фоне Банк России существенно пересмотрел прогноз, в том числе по инфляции на 2024 год. Он повышен до 6,5–7,0%. «С учетом проводимой денежно-кредитной политики годовая инфляция снизится до 4,0–4,5% в 2025 году и будет находиться вблизи 4% в дальнейшем»,— отмечает ЦБ.

Основные проинфляционные риски ЦБ видит в изменении условий внешней торговли с сохранением высоких инфляционных ожиданий и отклонения российской экономики вверх от траектории сбалансированного роста. Дезинфляционные риски связаны с более быстрым замедлением роста внутреннего спроса. При этом на среднесрочном горизонте баланс рисков для инфляции остается смещенным в сторону проинфляционных, подчеркивает ЦБ.

Целевым показателем ЦБ считает 4%, и руководство регулятора неоднократно говорило, что намерено добиться этого уровня уже в следующем году. Для этого ЦБ намерен придерживаться жесткой денежно-кредитной политики (ДКП). 16 июля ЦБ выпустил ряд документов, в которых предупредил о необходимости дальнейшего ужесточения ДКП, причем на более длительный срок, чем предполагалось ранее.

Основным проинфляционным фактором ЦБ считает спрос, который расширяется быстрее предложения. В частности, отмечал регулятор, спрос на труд достиг исторического пика и продолжает расти. Это приводит к росту зарплат быстрее производительности. Жесткая ДКП должна это сбалансировать, отмечал ЦБ.

Как ожидание повышения ставки отразилось на условиях выдачи корпоративных займов — в публикации «Ъ» «Кредиты ждут ставку».

 

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